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/cgi-bin/YaBB.pl General Category >> Politics, Religion (Tall Table) >> Oil prices..... /cgi-bin/YaBB.pl?num=1452971754 Message started by raydawg on 01/16/16 at 11:15:54 |
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Title: Oil prices..... Post by raydawg on 01/16/16 at 11:15:54 I always thought cheaper oil would create more economic opportunity, however, the start of this year has hammered my diversified holdings, in the market. This is a fund my employer matches up to 8%, if I do 8%, of my gross, pretax. I do that plus an additional 4%, so its not chump change, but its not my egg either. It seems they are all pointing to the oil slump as to why..... Not sure I can wrap an understanding around that. I read now that Obama has given Iran their freedom back, they plan to enter their reserves back on the market to. To my thinking I would say this would be great news for the consumer, but I appear wrong in my thinking and they believe this will add further strain on the market and with other producing countries in the region. If you have not heard, Valenzuela, which sits on huge oil reserves, and 95 percent of its exporting income is generated from that market, is experiencing triple digit inflation.... Seems if oil goes up, we get hosed, if it goes down, they use the same f'n hose, on us.... WTF, anybody up on this? |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by justin_o_guy2 on 01/16/16 at 13:23:51 I saw the Get out of the stock market Signs months ago. The question you ask is a several hours long conversation and then lots of what I would have offered would be speculative. There's, IMO,a sort of sliding scale to consider. Oil gets expensive, people spend eighty bucks to fill up, so, discretionary spending drops, hurting the overall economy. Oil gets cheap, well, WHY did it get cheap? Oversupply or dollar strengthening? If it's dollar strengthening, then that's Deflation. Talk about a Keynesians worst nightmare. And, if it Truly IS dollar strengthening, then wouldn't it also hold true that if fewer dollars are needed to buy a barrel of oil, wouldn't it also require fewer dollars to buy a stock? Now, what if it's a combination? Ohh, look at the variables That throws in. Look up Number of barrels of oil in storage How many oil tankers are loaded and parked? Zero, for all I know, but maybe not. At some point the lower price starts to bring drilling to a halt. Look up Rig count A sharp downturn won't immediately affect drilling. Rigs that are running keep running. Contracts are signed to drill, penalty clauses.... Oil companies have to maintain cash flow to pay for the drilling contractors they hired and to keep production up. Look up Lift costs per barrel of oil Then, in spite of all the rosy rhetoric, the unemployment figure is NOT 6%, it's Way more. You Do know that when someone has gotten all the unemployment benefits they have coming that they are then no longer counted as Unemployed, right? Check out Shadowstats Homeless people don't drive to work a lot, either. P.S., A quart is STILL four bucks. |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by thumperclone on 01/19/16 at 22:13:57 $1.67 gas and falling gets much lower and somebody is going to start another war |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by WebsterMark on 01/20/16 at 05:16:58 Oil is a commodity and subject to price fluctuation because of supply and demand. The world economy is slow right now and oil production has remained steady so the prices are dropping. It's nothing more than that. politicians, mostly Democrats of course, wanted to crucify oil executives a few years ago for "obscene" profits and they slapped additional taxes on them. Now that their revenues are dropping, shouldn't Hilary and Sanders be jumping for joy! To bad for people nearing retirement whose investments are tanking.... It's like Walmart...... Democrats hate Walmart until they close doors and lay people off, then they demand they open them back up. Liberal Democrats are the dumbest people on the planet. |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by raydawg on 01/20/16 at 06:05:32 Sorry web, I am throwing the BS flag. I believe they pretend it's free market, it ain't. We get gouged with too much demand or not enough >:( |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by justin_o_guy2 on 01/20/16 at 06:37:51 I don't know how real or valid this is, but I saw a coupla points made and saw them as good food for thought. Is it time to get ready for four dollar gas? I watched a Bush , when told about how much the Europeans pay for gas, Say I don't see why we can't have that here. One more News moment seen only once. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Condensate-Con-How-Real-Is-The-Oil-Glut.html |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by HovisPresley on 01/20/16 at 08:19:39 1C2E29383F2E39062A39204B0 wrote:
.................................................................... I know we have a BS flag, but is there a 'naivety' flag? |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by Serowbot on 01/20/16 at 08:26:01 Oil is on the commodity market... It is a gambling chip, subject to speculation. This also affects price. ...as an aside... wouldn't this be a good time to add say a 50 cent tax to gas,... to be used to fix our roads and infrastructure?... I know,.. nobody wants more taxes... but roads suck!.... Damaging the heck out of our rides... :-? AAA: pothole damage costs drivers $6.4 billion a year http://www.wusa9.com/story/news/nation/2014/02/24/potholes-damage-cost-us/5773501/ |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by WebsterMark on 01/20/16 at 10:44:27 3C2A3D20382D203B4F0 wrote:
No, because oil prices will return to where they were. You want to fix roads? Dump obamacare and use that money.....! |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by WebsterMark on 01/20/16 at 10:49:31 10031B06031505620 wrote:
Well, its true that oil has unique supply pressures and its also true that any product bought and sold in such large volumes is never totally operating in a free market environment. After all, we're not talking about snowcones being sold on the corner. |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by justin_o_guy2 on 01/20/16 at 15:41:11 https://mises.org/blog/its-not-just-supply-issue-oil-price-falls-35-dollars-barrel-1 And I learned stuff here http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Condensate-Con-How-Real-Is-The-Oil-Glut.html Just Exactly WHAT is that oil that is in storage? Since we Have so much oil stored, why the continued import numbers? Unless we are Buying with dollars from someone who has agreed to purchase T Bills with the money or the Glut is unrefineable unless it's blended with some heavy crude or some combination of the two.... Food for thought for the few who actually think. Sitting here with the T.V. going. Wife had the , coff, coff, News on. I'm stricken by the observation that these people look generally wimpy but ohh, such chiseled faces. Those muscles are Toned, baby! Car salesmen, politicians, preachers, media, and all with toned talking muscles. https://mises.org/blog/its-not-just-supply-issue-oil-price-falls-35-dollars-barrel-1 |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by pg on 01/20/16 at 15:53:52 How low will the price of oil go? I suspect it will go to $20 a barrel. Even Iran is going to start exporting oil as well. Best regards, |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by raydawg on 01/20/16 at 17:07:59 This link was sent to me, I found it very plausible, it seems to cover a lot of possibilities into this oil market. http://www.bikebandit.com/blog/post/the-high-cost-of-cheap-gas?roi=echo3-31793321486-32877918-31581c1f6293a1eb90672b41adccc5e6&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=bbnews0115&utm_source=Fri_011115_BB_News&utm_content=high_cost_of_cheap_gas |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by WebsterMark on 01/20/16 at 18:23:32 6B4C554A50735146504F465A230 wrote:
.................................................................... I know we have a BS flag, but is there a 'naivety' flag? [/quote] Yea, check next to your tin foil hat conspiracy flag. |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by justin_o_guy2 on 01/20/16 at 18:40:06 . Up to half of all oil production in the Eagle Ford Shale qualifies as condensate, according to the federal Energy Information Administration, and it makes up as much as 12 percent of all U.S. crude production. The big oil and gas players are rushing to build specialty refineries known as splitters that can process this condensate into natural gas and other hydrocarbons. Despite this construction, the U.S. still has more condensate than we can handle, and outdated federal rules dating back to the Arab Oil Crisis prohibit its export. http://www.chron.com/opinion/editorials/article/Complex-condensate-5585762.php OPINION section, but looks pretty solid. |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by DesertRat on 02/29/16 at 22:39:03 on your investments: The market runs on cycles. Buy at the bottom and Sell at the top of these cycles. REMOVE ALL EMOTIONS. More info on the cycles of the market, this should shed some light: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 BTW: Ray Dalio is the head of Bridgewater, one of the largest hedge funds in the world. https://www.quora.com/Im-a-14-year-old-student-hoping-to-get-into-the-stock-market-What-are-some-overall-tips-and-advice on the OIL price: it's simple macroeconomics: Supply and Demand - I just completed a case study on the current oil markets for my macro-econ professor. I researched US, SA, Middle East, Russian and Chinese markets and suppliers/refiners. There's a HUGE over supply in the market. In addition, the big players were looking to wipe out (acquire) all the little mom and pops that have sprung up during the price boom, so they dumped the over supply on the market driving the price so far down that the mom and pops cannot compete so must sell out. Read the Wall Street Journal and WATCH for the energy sector deals, try to avoid the B.S. "newsy" type spin doctor nuts and read through the lines. |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by old.indian on 03/01/16 at 07:46:12 143523352224023124500 wrote:
Quite a few of my retired neighbors are watching their stocks flushing. The best advice I ever received re: "The Stock Market" was. "There is ONE guy who is always going to make money in the stock market. And that's the guy who gets a commission when you buy, and a commission when you sell. It doesn't make any difference if you gain or lose. He gets his commission." :-? |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by DesertRat on 03/01/16 at 08:09:57 5E5D551F585F5558505F310 wrote:
Personally, I've lost everything 3 times now. The last time, 2007-2008, we took advice from our financial advisor of 15 years and still lost the majority of our investments. We were told it would take another 20+ years to get back what we lost. He still lives an affluent lifestyle. |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by justin_o_guy2 on 03/01/16 at 17:21:56 Some years back I was really following the political and economic stuff. I was consistently predicting. I told everyone to get the money out of the IRA, pay the penalty and taxes, just get the money. One man listened. Today, he Owns his house, instead of renting. He told me that had I not told him ,had he not listened, he would have been a renter forever. People really should be able to see most of the disasters coming. |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by Serowbot on 03/01/16 at 21:24:55 I've been saying that since it started... Wall Street investment used to be based on anticipation of earnings... Once money starts flowing automatically, via 401k, etc... it is a shell game... Every paycheck,... this money must go somewhere... it is no longer an estimate of possible earnings,... it's gambling... Managers,.. must put the money on something. there is no holding back. And,.. as the money multiplies, the value of any stock is reduced by equal percentage... A pie only splits so many ways... Spin the wheel... hope for the best... :-? |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by DesertRat on 03/01/16 at 21:37:07 justin, I ran into the same issue with my partner during the 07-08 "issues". We fought for months, as I wanted to sell everything in 07 and she refused until mid 08. It was way too late by then. She cried. She refuses to discuss it, even to this day. Serowbot, I've suspected the shell game for decades. I truly believe it's been going on for several centuries if we exam the pre-US markets in Europe and early American markets, they smell of scams and insider trading from the beginning. |
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Title: Re: Oil prices..... Post by DesertRat on 03/01/16 at 21:47:44 6670677A62777A61150 wrote:
this begs further discussion. So, where the crappity smack do we invest our money for growth if not in the market? Banks do not keep up with inflation in their interest offerings. So what do we do to support ourselves in the long run? |
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