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/cgi-bin/YaBB.pl General Category >> Politics, Religion (Tall Table) >> Our new country is gonna be great! /cgi-bin/YaBB.pl?num=1547729570 Message started by WebsterMark on 01/17/19 at 04:52:49 |
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Title: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/17/19 at 04:52:49 Abstract Using newly released detailed data on all prisoners who entered the Arizona state prison from January 1985 through June 2017, we are able to separate non-U.S. citizens by whether they are illegal or legal residents. Unlike other studies, these data do not rely on self-reporting of criminal backgrounds. Undocumented immigrants are at least 142% more likely to be convicted of a crime than other Arizonans. They also tend to commit more serious crimes and serve 10.5% longer sentences, more likely to be classified as dangerous, and 45% more likely to be gang members than U.S. citizens. Yet, there are several reasons that these numbers are likely to underestimate the share of crime committed by undocumented immigrants. There are dramatic differences between in the criminal histories of convicts who are U.S. citizens and undocumented immigrants. Young convicts are especially likely to be undocumented immigrants. While undocumented immigrants from 15 to 35 years of age make up slightly over two percent of the Arizona population, they make up about eight percent of the prison population. Even after adjusting for the fact that young people commit crime at higher rates, young undocumented immigrants commit crime at twice the rate of young U.S. citizens. These undocumented immigrants also tend to commit more serious crimes. If undocumented immigrants committed crime nationally as they do in Arizona, in 2016 they would have been responsible for over 1,000 more murders, 5,200 rapes, 8,900 robberies, 25,300 aggravated assaults, and 26,900 burglaries. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by T And T Garage on 01/17/19 at 06:27:23 5D6F68797E6F78476B78610A0 wrote:
"If"... well, that's a logical assumption <<<<<sarcasm |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by Eegore on 01/17/19 at 08:30:24 No idea why people won't reference their information but for anyone who actually wants to see the source and actually read the thing here you go: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3099992 Its only 50 or 55 pages so its quick to go over. Not that anyone will. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/17/19 at 08:53:56 you answered your own question, why bother with links, no one looks other than to categorize the site as left or right. In which case, the info is either believed without reading or discarded without reading. Point is, of course illegals commit more crimes. That should be intuitive to anyone. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by Eegore on 01/17/19 at 09:32:49 I read every link I post, cross reference it and review the additional references included if any. I actually use the information instead of just making attempts at using data as political ammunition. Why is it intuitive that illegals commit more crimes? Do you mean crimes in general, or specific crime types, or convictions? |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by T And T Garage on 01/17/19 at 09:43:37 043631202736211E322138530 wrote:
Well, the paper shows that they do in Arizona. Is it true of all illegal immigrants everywhere else? |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by LostArtist on 01/17/19 at 11:17:45 697778797469726F1D0 wrote:
Well, the paper shows that they do in Arizona. Is it true of all illegal immigrants everywhere else?[/quote] the Cato paper I posted a few days ago on another thread uses Texas as their sampling and shows that the opposite is true there, so, again, you can find whatever you want to back up what you want. why not just assume they are people just like us and commit crimes at the same rate as we do? |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by LostArtist on 01/17/19 at 11:22:09 also, this in and of itself shows the paper as biased unless somewhere it is corrected for later to make all other things equal... "Undocumented immigrants are at least 142% more likely to be convicted of a crime than other Arizonans." undocumented immigrants are highly likely to have less resources and might indeed prefer an American jail to their home nation, of course they have a higher rate of conviction (I'm sure this includes plea deals) . that's kinda like saying poor people are likely to be convicted of more crimes than rich |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by LostArtist on 01/17/19 at 11:29:01 152720313627300F233029420 wrote:
intuitive does not mean real or correct, it means you are going off your emotions that have been drummed up by fear mongering pundits and politicians that you choose to listen to why do you choose fear? |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/17/19 at 11:29:21 the Cato paper I posted a few days ago on another thread uses Texas as their sampling and shows that the opposite is true there, so, again, you can find whatever you want to back up what you want. why not just assume they are people just like us and commit crimes at the same rate as we do? I would guess your Cato paper blended legal and illegal immigrants together and relied on self-identification. didn't you read it? Because people are not just like us. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/17/19 at 11:39:32 intuitive does not mean real or correct, it means you are going off your emotions that have been drummed up by fear mongering pundits and politicians that you choose to listen to why do you choose fear? intuition is how you, Lost, determine your position on the vast majority of subjects that you have an opinion on, not facts. As I said, all of us do that. We make very few decisions based on facts. You lock your door at night Lost because you are fearful of the consequences if you don't. You save for retirement because you are fearful of the consequences if you don't. If you still ride a motorcycle, you probably don't ride like Travis Pastrana because you are fearful of the consequences. You use the word fear because you are trying to make it out like I'm being unreasonable. But as I asked you before, have you opened your home to an unknown 18-25 year old single illegal immigrant who speaks little or no English and who can't provide a valid history to his background? Haven't done that? Why not? is it because you're afraid, you're fearful? No, you're being reasonable. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by verslagen1 on 01/17/19 at 13:14:40 Unless they publish the raw data, bias is a matter of fact. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by LostArtist on 01/17/19 at 14:21:14 417374656273645B77647D160 wrote:
yes, I am. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by LostArtist on 01/17/19 at 14:22:05 003235242332251A36253C570 wrote:
YES THEY ARE! or are you admitting to your bigotry??? |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/17/19 at 14:35:27 455641405F5254565D02330 wrote:
Eegore posted the link; here it is again. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3099992 From there, you can open a .pdf with the data. I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess my friend LostArtist won't do all that.... ;) If you read through this, the data and abstract summary is pretty conclusive. So everyone can stop using the argument that illegal immigrants proportionally commit less crimes. Now, do I expect the leftist to give that up? No, of course not. My guess is, this fact will be ignored. Again, we make emotional decisions and justify them afterwards with the facts we want. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/17/19 at 14:36:53 YES THEY ARE! or are you admitting to your bigotry??? No, they are not. I'm admitting to being the exact same kind of person you are. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by Eegore on 01/17/19 at 14:40:07 "Again, we make emotional decisions and justify them afterwards with the facts we want." I partially agree. Again, we consistently choose to make emotional decisions and justify them afterwards with the facts we want. This formula for communication can be stopped at any time. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by LostArtist on 01/17/19 at 14:49:27 7C4E49585F4E59664A59402B0 wrote:
uh huh.... you are really really really nothing like me, well, on here maybe, but hey, I guess IRL (in real life for you fuddy duddies) anything is possible, but I really, really, really doubt you are anything like me, you're probably a successful salesman but are nice to your family and friends, even though chasing that last dollar is what really gets a grunt from your gut... but sure, you are charitable and supportive, as best you can with what you have to yours and your friends, maybe even a hand out to a bum on the street (maybe??) idk, I'd still give you the benefit of the doubt as being a decent average person irl |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by LostArtist on 01/17/19 at 14:55:40 4060626A7760050 wrote:
it's not that we use emotions, it's WHICH emotions we are using..... anytime ANYONE tried to egg me on with fear or anger, I immediately suspect them as having bad info and bad intentions. And anytime anyone tries to boost my ego and exaggerates anything to get my approval.... nah, they're up to something too, not in my best interest... and when they do both, a la Trump.... nah... screw them |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/17/19 at 15:19:33 0B2B29213C2B4E0 wrote:
Not really. Think about purchasing a product with very specific specification. When faced with multiple selections, its easy to factually toss out the ones that are on the low range of meeting spec. Once you get to a point where the specs are all met or each are superior in factors that are equal in importance, your decision is emotional. In fact, at that point, your decision is based on your account manager, a commercial, the name of the company, the color, the shape of the packaging, if they bought you lunch etc.... Now look at this debate. There are many people who say a wall is absolutely needed. Some of those people live on the border, some work protecting the border etc.... You've minimized those opinions and stick with your line that those who do the work should decide. Yet, you only factor in the opinions of those who do the work that you emotionally agree with. You refuse to see the obvious connection that many who say a wall is not needed are the ones who's career is border security. A wall is a very visible reminder their efforts were not enough. No one wants to be replaced, no one wants to be told they aren't doing the job. That influences their decision. Consider that a little closer. Reading your post and piecing together what you do, I suspect the level of work you do is similar to mine. I just spent 5 days at a conference sitting in on specifications committees and adding input to specs that all of you on here are impacted from. As someone who recognizes this phenomenon of emotional decisions in others, I recognize when I fall into the same mode, but it can't be stopped for long. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/17/19 at 15:24:11 even though chasing that last dollar is what really gets a grunt from your gut.. You couldn't be any further from the truth if you tried. I've turned down many opportunities for far more money. I don't want to work that hard. I think about my work on and off throughout the evening and weekends but its far from my focus. I had a customer of mine who tried to get me to form a company with one of his partners. It would have been a goldmine for sure. But as I told him, as the owner, he's on the job 24/7. I'm on the job 9/5. I can turn it off anytime I want. He never can. He had hundreds of people relying on him to succeed everyday, to make the correct decision every time. I don't want that. I don't care how much it's worth. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by Eegore on 01/17/19 at 17:15:23 "You've minimized those opinions and stick with your line that those who do the work should decide." Incorrect. I have very specifically said the decisions should be comprehensive: "Put a wall where it belongs, let the private property owners have input, let the National Guard have input, let people doing the job have input and let the people who have never ever been there have input," I am saying that the current complete physical wall is suggested by people who do not do the job. This means CBP, DHS, Private land owners etc. do not get input in a cost-per output ratio, but you already said money isn't part of the equation - even though the government shutdown indicates otherwise - so we just need to agree to disagree as I am taking cost into account in my assessment. "You refuse to see the obvious connection that many who say a wall is not needed are the ones who's career is border security." Incorrect, other than DHS, ICE and CBP the other referenced entities are not responsible for border security. Private land owners, temporarily assigned military, DEA are not border security and have consistent border crossing reducing results. Army Corp of Engineers cost per square foot analysis is not border security, they just don't think boring through rock in untraveled mountains is a good use of their time or resources. One of the things you refuse to accept is wall maintenance is more resource intensive, CBP would need more staff, not less. This idea that an unmanned wall will work now when it hasn't for centuries is odd to me. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by Eegore on 01/17/19 at 17:28:20 "Not really. Think about purchasing a product with very specific specification. When faced with multiple selections, its easy to factually toss out the ones that are on the low range of meeting spec. Once you get to a point where the specs are all met or each are superior in factors that are equal in importance, your decision is emotional. In fact, at that point, your decision is based on your account manager, a commercial, the name of the company, the color, the shape of the packaging, if they bought you lunch etc...." That's the reverse order of what I was stating when I responded: "Again, we consistently choose to make emotional decisions and justify them afterwards with the facts we want." This indicates that an emotional decision is made prior to any analysis such as "to factually toss out the ones that are on the low range of meeting spec" Your example is "to factually toss out the ones that are on the low range of meeting spec" and then make an emotional decision as factors begin to be equal in measure: "Once you get to" I interpreted the statement as meaning an emotional decision is made, then one seeks out the specs discarding ones that contradict their pre-made decision until they can cherry-pick the specs that most closely justify their original uninformed, unresearched decision. Either way it's a choice. We choose to go out and cherry pick facts until one matches our beliefs which is a technical and calculated response to an emotional action. Anyone can say when asked about a topic "I don't know enough about that to make an informed decision" but its a lot easier today to have an opinion about something you know nothing about then go hunt the internet for like-minded views and say "See! See! I told you!" That's the internet for ya. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/18/19 at 06:42:15 but you already said money isn't part of the equation - even though the government shutdown indicates otherwise - so we just need to agree to disagree as I am taking cost into account in my assessment. Of course money is an issue, but let's be honest, the border security money is meaningless compared to the entire federal budget and/or compared to the cost of illegal immigration. I've got no problem with a wall and enhanced electronic and other security measures. I have no problem recognizing you don't need to put a wall on the side of a cliff if that's where the border line is. My point has always been, relying primarily on people and electronics is a major flaw because a President Harris or Booker would suspend those operations. A majority liberal congress would pull funding. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/18/19 at 06:53:07 This indicates that an emotional decision is made prior to any analysis such as "to factually toss out the ones that are on the low range of meeting spec" Your example is "to factually toss out the ones that are on the low range of meeting spec" and then make an emotional decision as factors begin to be equal in measure: "Once you get to" You're being to literal in your interpretation. In real world decision making situations, stages of the decision occur repeatedly. Either way it's a choice. Maybe; maybe not. The leftist would have you believe clever Russian Facebook ads deceived undecided in sufficient numbers to sway otherwise sane adults to vote for Trump. Recent articles on Google suggest they manipulated search results to favor leftist causes and could have swung votes to Hilary. Point is, if marketing did subconsciously produce results, companies wouldn't spend millions on it. Do you think Gillette ran that ad because they really care about the topic? This coming from a company who charges more for the same product just because it's packaged for a woman? (The Pink Tax phenomenon) No, they did it because it made a splash. Gillette is more known today than it was last week. I know why I support Trump. Its emotional. I give him miles of leeway I'd never grant to anyone else because he's won that latitude from me. No one else has come close to getting that access from millions and millions of Americans. |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by LostArtist on 01/18/19 at 16:22:01 576562737465724D61726B000 wrote:
you didn't understand what I said. but it's not a common phrase so it's my fault... a grunt from your gut isn't "after thinking I want a healthier work/life balance I decided......" a grunt from our gut is that kick of motivation that makes you go... oh, well... and makes you think about it. it's kind of your muse, it's what inspires you to think about it, even if the ultimate answer is no. oh, and you proved my point, you want the most money for the least amount of work, aka chasing that last dollar (squeezing it all out) , that's why you're a salesman instead of someone who actually does the real work. I bet you can remember every time someone offered you money..... |
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Title: Re: Our new country is gonna be great! Post by WebsterMark on 01/19/19 at 05:06:31 you didn't understand what I said. but it's not a common phrase so it's my fault... a grunt from your gut isn't "after thinking I want a healthier work/life balance I decided......" a grunt from our gut is that kick of motivation that makes you go... oh, well... and makes you think about it. it's kind of your muse, it's what inspires you to think about it, even if the ultimate answer is no. oh, and you proved my point, you want the most money for the least amount of work, aka chasing that last dollar (squeezing it all out) , that's why you're a salesman instead of someone who actually does the real work. I bet you can remember every time someone offered you money..... Lost, that's an absolutely ridiculous response to my post. No one reading that would arrive at the conclusion you did. It's clear you hate me with a burning passion. I think if my wife got on here and posted a note I'd been killed or something, you'd laugh and think I got what I deserved. I'm putting you in my TT category meaning you're not worth any investment in time, meaning I'll rarely read and/or respond to you. It's been more pleasant on here fot that reason and I expect this will make it even more so. |
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