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General Category >> Politics, Religion (Tall Table) >> Yeah, it's a Close race
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Message started by JOG on 10/11/24 at 02:41:13

Title: Yeah, it's a Close race
Post by JOG on 10/11/24 at 02:41:13

https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1844451693670670783

Look,just LOOK at the difference in the crowds.
And I'm supposed to believe the polls?
Bullschitt

Title: Re: Yeah, it's a Close race
Post by Eegore on 10/11/24 at 15:50:29

To me this is like saying whatever NFL team has the most fans in the audience will win the Super Bowl.

I'm not sure what makes rallies at targeted locations an indicator of millions upon millions of other humans not in those few locations. Because a few hundred drive from out of State?

This doesn't mean polls are right, doesn't mean "lefties" are right, it doesn't mean whatever convoluted idea comes from not agreeing entirely with the OP. It only means I can't see why rally attendance, being such a tiny percentage of the overall voting populace, can possibly be how a winner is pre-decided categorically and without error.

Title: Re: Yeah, it's a Close race
Post by JOG on 10/11/24 at 17:37:04

And yet, she can go to the heart of Leftyville and Still have to hire entertainment or bus people in to have a tenth of those numbers.
Try again.

Title: Re: Yeah, it's a Close race
Post by JOG on 10/11/24 at 17:39:32

To me this is like saying whatever NFL team has the most fans in the audience will win the Super Bowl.

If the game was determined by a Vote,then you would be being reasonable.

Title: Re: Yeah, it's a Close race
Post by Eegore on 10/11/24 at 19:54:51

If the game was determined by a Vote,then you would be being reasonable.

If the amount of humans attending rallies were even 1% of the voting population your assessment would still be unreasonable.

How can such a tiny amount of the population represent the nation as a whole?

Title: Re: Yeah, it's a Close race
Post by JOG on 10/11/24 at 22:22:24

How do polls matter,then?

Title: Re: Yeah, it's a Close race
Post by Eegore on 10/11/24 at 23:18:11

How do polls matter,then?

They don't for the most part. The difference between polls and rallies is that rallies are specifically targeted for areas that will get high attendance, typically. There is not a lot of benefit to holding a rally in an area where there will be no support or low attendance. It's unlikely Trump will hold a rally in downtown Portland for instance.

Polls on the other hand tend to have many more participants, and can be independent. Not all are, but they have a higher probability of being independent than a rally put on by a campaign. Of course they have a much higher margin of error by comparison.

Both have practically zero assurance for predicting a winner as there are far, far more voters, like millions more, that won't participate in polls or rallies. I'd like to see things like rallies predict accurately a POTUS, but I can't mathematically see a way to get accurate information from such a tremendously low percentage sample of the voting pool.

240 million registered voters, with a 66.1% turnout would be 158,427,986 voters. If the 24 Trump rallies this year represented 50% of a 66.1% turnout he would need 6,601,166 attendees per-rally. That's just to represent 33.05% of the voting turnout - 6 Million attendees at each rally.