SuzukiSavage.com - Please answer this........

T And T Garage

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Re: Please answer this........
Reply #30 - 08/13/17 at 19:10:25

LockeClone wrote on 08/13/17 at 18:55:57:

So no comment on automation? You believe that there will be jobs aplenty for the foreseeable future?

As you will see, or have already seen - trying to actually converse with several on here is akin to talking to a turnip... or brick wall.

Instead of replying by saying "you might have a good point", or "I never thought of it that way", you're more likely to get a super defensive, yet elusive response.

But - don't give up.

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raydawg

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Re: Please answer this........
Reply #31 - 08/13/17 at 21:13:08

LockeClone wrote on 08/13/17 at 18:55:57:

So no comment on automation? You believe that there will be jobs aplenty for the foreseeable future?

How can I answer such a question?

If I had the ability, I'd be at the racetrack Grin

Sorry you didn't like my answer to your previous question.
But it is a possibility this automation, which, has been around a spell now, as those who preach doom and gloom with it, could enhance opportunities.

It can bring with it all sorts of new jobs too.
In the commercial airplane manufacturing, we have been on the forefront of utilizing such technologies.
Not only has it taken over hazardous jobs, freeing mechanics of risk and injury, it has brought the cost down, and opened up new jobs to oversee the equipment, run it, etc.

Mankind has always shown the ability to adapt.
Look at what we are doing now, with chips.
Was once a time a Texas Instrument calculator was very costly.
Now, it is cheap technology.

This evolving will do away with the old, like newspapers, saving all sorts of resources, etc.
Television we grew up with is quickly dying, as folks have more choices to entertainment, etc....
Yet it will still require a live person to do much of the work involved in it.

What I can say, with as much certainty as I can offer, is yes, we will have jobs, for those who want them, and always appreciate the opportunity to "earn" a living as a privilege, not as a right, guarantee, or with expectations before they prove their worth.

Simply put, automation can be a asset to our lives, freeing us to do many other things, and improving the quality of our lives.

You are free to believe otherwise, if it serves you kindly.

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“The biggest big business in America is not steel, automobiles, or television. It is the manufacture, refinement and distribution of anxiety.”—Eric Sevareid (1964)

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Re: Please answer this........
Reply #32 - 08/13/17 at 21:13:35

T And T Garage wrote on 08/13/17 at 19:10:25:

LockeClone wrote on 08/13/17 at 18:55:57:

So no comment on automation? You believe that there will be jobs aplenty for the foreseeable future?

As you will see, or have already seen - trying to actually converse with several on here is akin to talking to a turnip... or brick wall.

Instead of replying by saying "you might have a good point", or "I never thought of it that way", you're more likely to get a super defensive, yet elusive response.

But - don't give up.

-

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“The biggest big business in America is not steel, automobiles, or television. It is the manufacture, refinement and distribution of anxiety.”—Eric Sevareid (1964)

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LockeClone

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Re: Please answer this........
Reply #33 - 08/13/17 at 21:48:52

I have to calibrate here, I'm not trying to argue about whether automation is good or bad. I'm trying to back up and point at the very measurable trend of job sectors being decimated when new technology examples, like some of the ones I mentioned roll through. No value judgement here. PLEASE take a step back and think this through. Look at what is happening, then make value conclusions after, if you like.

Yes, we have had employment generally available. Yes, we can surely absorb more waves of automation. This isn't a binary question. The question at hand is how we distribute wealth when the labor pool is so oversaturated that your job pays you kibble because there's a million desperate people lined up to do it for less.

Unless you own enough capital too but your own means of production, you and I are just talking horses waiting for the day when our usefulness diminishes... But you are probably very comfortable at the moment and/or haven't been in a position to watch this happening or read about the numbers.

I'm also not saying that a basic income is the only way forward. But you probably haven't thought about it much as you seem to believe that something as tenuous as a jobs/labor ratio will always be favorable despite the probable fact that you've probably read articles written by a bot, or have been legally aided by a bot without your knowledge. They're finding that boots are better at primary care diagnosis than primary care physicians. Beta Self driving trucks have already logged a few million miles. This is happening, and it's not realistic for every one of us to become programmers overnight.

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justin_o_guy2 Serious Thumper Offline What happened? Posts: 55279 East Texas, 1/2 dallas/la.	Re: Please answer this........ Reply #34 - 08/13/17 at 21:55:36 What happens when production is automated? If people don't earn money, who buys the products? I'm not against automation. I like machines, maybe too much. But how do producers sell to people who have been replaced by machines?
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raydawg

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Re: Please answer this........
Reply #35 - 08/13/17 at 22:02:28

Ok, I think I get your question and concerns, but like tomorrow, we really don't know if we need to pack our lunch, do we?
Yes, it sounds trite, I admit, but it is a possibility we don't make it out the door tomorrow.

Of course we plan on it, and chances favor us greatly, we'll eat that lunch.
But to guess too far off into the future over things as complex as the work environment, well, it's just too hard to say how it will end up.

I would venture to say we will adjust accordingly too, as I mentioned reduced work week hours, etc.
What in normal now, might not be, in the future, as it can be redefined according to how things develop.

I can't fathom folks not having a work life, just staying home and having their needs met.
Hell, that ain't life, that is a parasite, mankind would vanish under such circumstances.

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“The biggest big business in America is not steel, automobiles, or television. It is the manufacture, refinement and distribution of anxiety.”—Eric Sevareid (1964)

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T And T Garage Serious Thumper Offline SuzukiSavage.com Rocks! Posts: 9839	Re: Please answer this........ Reply #36 - 08/14/17 at 05:38:14 Oh - hey ray! Guess what? Remember when I said I'd let you know when I found an adult (besides myself) on here - I found another - Locke. You're welcome.
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Re: Please answer this........
Reply #37 - 08/14/17 at 06:11:12

This is a discussion about a real set of issues. Yeah! Most of the jobs that automation has removed are labor - whether it is coal mining, driving, agriculture, auto manufacturing etc and as Lockeclone noted the trend is not reversing anytime soon.
What will future life look like? Will we have one wage earner famiies again, it would probably be good for many. Yet the child rearing segment is only 20-30 years. What to do with all the others.
Retirement used to be 4-10 years after 65, but now people live well into their late 70s.
If you average out first 20 years for schooling, the next 45 working, then the next 10 years retirement, that means your 45 years of working must (in our present system) provide for 35 non working - non income years as well as the 45 you worked. No wonder the system is imploding. (Yes, and since the 20 years for schooling are actually spent on the next generation, and the retirement years are, with inflation, you are really at much closer to even earning -not earning situation. This means you will have to save 50% of your earnings to fund it!!

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Re: Please answer this........
Reply #38 - 08/14/17 at 06:48:30

Orwells' "Time Traveler" tried to glimpse into such a future, where one portion of the population had "evolved" into artsy types with no clue how to provide itself with sustanence, the other portion providing food etc but at a sacrificial cost. Wonder if he got it right?

The 50%/50% issue is growing more pressing, because more of today's wealth is held by a smaller and smaller percentage of people. Thus the funding of the 50-50 becomes impossible with more and more people left in the fringes. Neither political party is forthcoming with solutions to this not to far in the future bomb.

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Serowbot YaBB Moderator ModSquad Offline OK.... so what's the speed of dark? Posts: 29686 Tucson Az Gender:	Re: Please answer this........ Reply #39 - 08/14/17 at 08:42:13 30 hour work week?...
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raydawg

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Re: Please answer this........
Reply #40 - 08/14/17 at 08:58:58

Well lets look at some possibilities...

Lets assume we do go back to a one wage earner per family.
Lets say our work week is 20 hours, over 4 days.
Let say because of technology, food is cheaper, as well as products, and energy.
The money used/circulating, for those things are now free to go elsewhere.
Perhaps travel, will become a big and affordable option for a lot.
That will require lots of infrastructure/support jobs.

I am sure lots of others could be thought up.

Now lets look at housing, in those childless years/retirement, etc.
Why do we need all that space?
I think it will become the norm to move into a something like a planned city, communal type, where energy saving can be a big win.
Think of a GIANT mall, with housing, medical, stores, entertainment, food/eating, etc.
All without the need of a car....
Sorta like New York city without the crime Grin

A real self contained, and supporting, enterprise that frees up all sorts money and time.

The hard part is to think outside of our comfort, or what we already know, zone.

I think cash will be gone, and I think financial crimes will be a thing of the past, as the money system will be all computerized with 100% accountability, like trying to use your credit card on line now, only thousands of times bigger and better.

Can you imagine going to the doctor.
You are having some medical problems.
They scan you, like a CT scanner, only way smaller, etc.
It reads your complete body functions instantly, analyzing it on the spot.
Say if you need a procedure to clear a blocker artery, or a pinched nerve...
They take you to a different machine, give you a sedative, arrange you on a table, and then this machine does the surgery on you in minutes.
Because of science advancements, their is no recouping, or recovering, needed, you walk out on your own accord, fixed

I think they already have machines that perform sex.....
That is why Bot is no longer posting Grin

edit: WTH, he just returned from the grave to post in front of my reply....
No matter, that is where he has been still stands!

However, I will be a rebel, living off the land on my island Grin

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Re: Please answer this........
Reply #41 - 08/14/17 at 11:13:34

Another view/input:

By Dan Nidess
Aug. 10, 2017 6:19 p.m. ET

Leading voices in the tech industry—from Mark Zuckerberg to Sam Altman —are warning that increased automation risks leaving an unprecedented number of Americans permanently unemployed. In response, many concerned Silicon Valley luminaries have called for a universal basic income, or UBI. Guaranteed income from the government may seem like the easiest way to address long-term unemployment, but UBI fixes only the narrowest and most quantifiable problem joblessness causes: lack of a reliable income. It completely ignores, and may exacerbate, the larger complications of mass unemployment.

Finland has been testing a basic income for 2,000 of its unemployed citizens since January, and UBI proponents say the Nordic country is providing an example for the U.S. It will be interesting to see the Finnish results, but Americans shouldn’t read too much into the outcome of a small-scale, early-stage trial. Look instead to Saudi Arabia, which for decades has attempted the wholesale replacement of work with government subsidies. Perhaps more than half of all Saudis are unemployed and not seeking work. They live off payments funded by the country’s oil wealth.

And what has Saudi Arabia’s de facto UBI created? A population deeply resistant to work. Efforts by the Saudi government to diversify the economy have been hamstrung by the difficulty of getting Saudis to trade in their free income willingly for paid labor. Regular citizens lack dignity while the royal family lives a life of luxury. The technocratic elite has embraced relatively liberal values at odds with much of the society’s conservatism. These divisions have made the country a fertile recruiting ground for extremists.

It’s true that Saudi Arabia has a host of other social problems. For one, it is ruled by a hereditary monarchy and a strictly enforced set of religious laws. Yet the widespread economic disempowerment of its population has made it that much harder for the kingdom to address its other issues. Don’t expect the U.S. to fare any better if divided into “productive” and “unproductive” classes.

At the heart of a functioning democratic society is a social contract built on the independence and equality of individuals. Casually accepting the mass unemployment of a large part of the country and viewing those people as burdens would undermine this social contract, as millions of Americans become dependent on the government and the taxpaying elite. It would also create a structural division of society that would destroy any pretense of equality.

UBI supporters would counter that their system would free people to pursue self-improvement and to take risks. America’s experience over the past couple of decades suggests that the opposite is more likely. Labor Department data show that at the end of June the U.S. had 6.2 million vacant jobs. Millions of skilled manufacturing and cybersecurity jobs will go unfilled in the coming years.

This problem stems from a lack of skilled workers. While better retraining programs are necessary, too many of the unemployed, or underemployed, lack the motivation to learn new skills. Increasingly, young unemployed men are perfectly content to stay at home playing videogames.

UBI would also weaken American democracy. How long before the well-educated, technocratic elites come to believe the unemployed underclass should no longer have the right to vote? Will the “useless class” react with gratitude for the handout and admiration for the increasingly divergent culture and values of the “productive class”? If Donald Trump’s election, and the elites’ reactions, are any indication, the opposite is likelier.

Rapid technological advancement is already presenting American workers with unprecedented difficulties. Facing this challenge is going to require creative approaches from the government and the private economy. UBI is a noble attempt. Perhaps it could work as only a supplement to earned income. But as currently envisioned, UBI addresses the material needs of citizens while undermining their aspirations.

In the same Harvard commencement speech in which Mr. Zuckerberg called for a basic income, he also spent significant time talking about the need for purpose. But purpose can’t be manufactured, nor can it be given out alongside a government subsidy. It comes from having deep-seated responsibility—to yourself, your family and society as a whole.

Silicon Valley’s leading innovators should understand this better than anybody. In an era when civic participation in all forms is falling, employment is for many the last great equalizer. It is worth preserving.

Mr. Nidess is a writer in San Francisco.

Appeared in the August 11, 2017, print edition.

On a personal note, I have seen the effect of the Indian Tribes here in Washington, becoming something all together never intended, when the government tried to repair past inequities, with financial restitution, etc.

It removes a very important necessity, from a persons deep need, of being able to achieve, in their own eyes, worth.
This trait, is at the very core, of our unique individuality.
You remove that, you remove part of their soul.

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“The biggest big business in America is not steel, automobiles, or television. It is the manufacture, refinement and distribution of anxiety.”—Eric Sevareid (1964)

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