Abstract

Using newly released detailed data on all prisoners who entered the Arizona state prison from January 1985 through June 2017, we are able to separate non-U.S. citizens by whether they are illegal or legal residents. Unlike other studies, these data do not rely on self-reporting of criminal backgrounds. Undocumented immigrants are at least 142% more likely to be convicted of a crime than other Arizonans. They also tend to commit more serious crimes and serve 10.5% longer sentences, more likely to be classified as dangerous, and 45% more likely to be gang members than U.S. citizens. Yet, there are several reasons that these numbers are likely to underestimate the share of crime committed by undocumented immigrants. There are dramatic differences between in the criminal histories of convicts who are U.S. citizens and undocumented immigrants.

Young convicts are especially likely to be undocumented immigrants. While undocumented immigrants from 15 to 35 years of age make up slightly over two percent of the Arizona population, they make up about eight percent of the prison population. Even after adjusting for the fact that young people commit crime at higher rates, young undocumented immigrants commit crime at twice the rate of young U.S. citizens. These undocumented immigrants also tend to commit more serious crimes.

If undocumented immigrants committed crime nationally as they do in Arizona, in 2016 they would have been responsible for over 1,000 more murders, 5,200 rapes, 8,900 robberies, 25,300 aggravated assaults, and 26,900 burglaries.

 No idea why people won't reference their information but for anyone who actually wants to see the source and actually read the thing here you go:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3099992

 Its only 50 or 55 pages so its quick to go over.  Not that anyone will.

 I read every link I post, cross reference it and review the additional references included if any.  I actually use the information instead of just making attempts at using data as political ammunition.

 Why is it intuitive that illegals commit more crimes?

 Do you mean crimes in general, or specific crime types, or convictions?

T And T Garage wrote on 01/17/19 at 09:43:37:


the Cato paper I posted a few days ago on another thread uses Texas as their sampling and shows that the opposite is true there, so, again, you can find whatever you want to back up what you want.  

why not just assume they are people just like us and commit crimes at the same rate as we do?

WebsterMark wrote on 01/17/19 at 08:53:56:



intuitive does not mean real or correct, it means you are going off your emotions that have been drummed up by fear mongering pundits and politicians that you choose to listen to

why do you choose fear?

intuitive does not mean real or correct, it means you are going off your emotions that have been drummed up by fear mongering pundits and politicians that you choose to listen to

why do you choose fear?

intuition is how you, Lost, determine your position on the vast majority of subjects that you have an opinion on, not facts. As I said, all of us do that. We make very few decisions based on facts.

You lock your door at night Lost because you are fearful of the consequences if you don't.  You save for retirement because you are fearful of the consequences if you don't. If you still ride a motorcycle, you probably don't ride like Travis Pastrana because you are fearful of the consequences.

You use the word fear because you are trying to make it out like I'm being unreasonable. But as I asked you before, have you opened your home to an unknown 18-25 year old single illegal immigrant who speaks little or no English and who can't provide a valid history to his background?  Haven't done that? Why not? is it because you're afraid, you're fearful?

No, you're being reasonable.

WebsterMark wrote on 01/17/19 at 11:39:32:


yes, I am.

verslagen1 wrote on 01/17/19 at 13:14:40:


Eegore posted the link; here it is again. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3099992

From there, you can open a .pdf with the data.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess my friend LostArtist won't do all that....

If you read through this, the data and abstract summary is pretty conclusive. So everyone can stop using the argument that illegal immigrants proportionally commit less crimes.

Now, do I expect the leftist to give that up? No, of course not. My guess is, this fact will be ignored. Again, we make emotional decisions and justify them afterwards with the facts we want.