SuzukiSavage.com - Electoral College

WebsterMark

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Electoral College
10/30/24 at 05:27:02

Based on RealClearPolitics poll which is an average of maybe 10 different polls, they show as of today Trump with 297. That’s based on a slight lead in several battleground states such as Pennsylvania. Take those out and they’re showing Trump at 219, Harris at 214 with 104 to close to call, but in those, 88 leaning Trump.

The thing I’m shocked about is the Republican turnout in early voting is far larger than expected.

Myself, I’m still am unsure which way this is going to go, but the fact most of the battleground states are leaning Trump tells me he’s the better bet right now.

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Eegore

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Re: Electoral College
Reply #1 - 10/30/24 at 05:41:41

Realclearpolitics also predicted Clinton by a landslide in 2016. They use the most ideal averaging system, but we've seen how that can go.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2016_president/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_rac...

Considering they are averaging, they rely on the accuracy of some pretty poor polling. But what else can we use? It's all guesswork, and even after votes are counted people are going to say it's wrong.

This is an opinion for anyone incapable of understanding what an opinion is.

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JOG

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Re: Electoral College
Reply #2 - 10/30/24 at 07:09:07

Realclearpolitics also predicted Clinton by a landslide in 2016. They

I'm not even going to try to unpack the errors in understanding going on there.
I'll do a quick outline.

That was an attempt to create the perception she was ahead. Even Donna Brazeal Said after the big trip, hitting the towns,She has No Support. The polls were Bullschitt to create the illusion, so the Cheat wouldn't be obvious. They underestimated Trump's support, and didn't dial in enough cheat. Unlike the people here,they learned. And Dialed it Up in 20.

RCP isn't necessarily a participant in trying to create a false perception. If they use corrupted data, the outcome is corrupted.

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Eegore

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Re: Electoral College
Reply #3 - 10/30/24 at 07:38:56

RCP still uses the same methods as 2016. So if their method was impacted before, it can be impacted now. I have seen no indication they can reliable mitigate any of the strategies used to manipulate polls. So using them today is not really any different than using them in 2016.

This is my opinion for anyone incapable of understanding what an opinion is.

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WebsterMark

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Re: Electoral College
Reply #4 - 10/30/24 at 07:59:13

JOG wrote on 10/30/24 at 07:09:07:

Realclearpolitics also predicted Clinton by a landslide in 2016. They

I'm not even going to try to unpack the errors in understanding going on there.
I'll do a quick outline.

That was an attempt to create the perception she was ahead. Even Donna Brazeal Said after the big trip, hitting the towns,She has No Support. The polls were Bullschitt to create the illusion, so the Cheat wouldn't be obvious. They underestimated Trump's support, and didn't dial in enough cheat. Unlike the people here,they learned. And Dialed it Up in 20.

RCP isn't necessarily a participant in trying to create a false perception. If they use corrupted data, the outcome is corrupted.

I don’t think it was an attempt to create the impression she was ahead, I think they discovered their methodology was flawed.

Are some polls corrupted by purposeful bias? Are some polls corrupted by unconscious bias? Yes, absolutely but that’s the value of averaging.

Many legitimate pollsters were shocked at how deep Trump’s support in blue collar workers was.

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JOG Serious Thumper Offline SuzukiSavage.com Rocks! Posts: 2055 Longview, Texas Gender:	Re: Electoral College Reply #5 - 10/30/24 at 09:15:18 The Reported polls were Bullschitt. She never Had that level of support. Ask Donna Brazeal. If you were following the primaries you Watched them steal it from Bernie. I was in the shop,listening almost every day. Results came in,he had more votes, she was awarded more delegates. I watched it happen.
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Serowbot YaBB Moderator ModSquad Offline OK.... so what's the speed of dark? Posts: 29278 Tucson Az Gender:	Re: Electoral College Reply #6 - 10/30/24 at 13:55:27 This is the screwiest election I can remember
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JOG Serious Thumper Offline SuzukiSavage.com Rocks! Posts: 2055 Longview, Texas Gender:	Re: Electoral College Reply #7 - 10/30/24 at 22:05:23 Serowbot wrote on 10/30/24 at 13:55:27: This is the screwiest election I can remember That you're unable to understand that Trump will deliver a better future for you is Screwy.
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Serowbot YaBB Moderator ModSquad Offline OK.... so what's the speed of dark? Posts: 29278 Tucson Az Gender:	Re: Electoral College Reply #8 - 10/31/24 at 06:45:23 Exit polls are showing women voting 55% to men 45% Maybe a convicted felon and sexual predator vowing to protect women whether they like it or not is off-putting
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WebsterMark

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Re: Electoral College
Reply #9 - 11/01/24 at 04:21:43

If Trump loses, it very well could be due to women sticking together, but remember when Harris was running in a larger group, they laughed her out of the race. First one out as I recall, before Pocahontas. In this one on one election, many are choosing Harris because she’s not Trump.

To be completely fair, Trump won in 2016 partially because so many already had decided there was no way they were voting for Hilary.

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TheBabyDerp Full Member Offline Love to ride and travel. Posts: 234 Mobile, Alabama Gender:	Re: Electoral College Reply #10 - 11/01/24 at 04:54:14 Women still feel the pain of this crappy economy too.
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WebsterMark Serious Thumper Offline SuzukiSavage.com Rocks! Posts: 13891 Gender:	Re: Electoral College Reply #11 - 11/01/24 at 10:22:58 Probably more so since there are more single parent women.
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Serowbot YaBB Moderator ModSquad Offline OK.... so what's the speed of dark? Posts: 29278 Tucson Az Gender:	Re: Electoral College Reply #12 - 11/01/24 at 11:29:03 Maybe they can't afford the burden of extra children
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WebsterMark Serious Thumper Offline SuzukiSavage.com Rocks! Posts: 13891 Gender:	Re: Electoral College Reply #13 - 11/01/24 at 12:20:47 Then be responsible.
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JOG

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Re: Electoral College
Reply #14 - 11/01/24 at 14:09:46

I saw a map. Wish I'd copied it and put it in here. It showed where more than half of the population is. It's Tight. The vast expansive nation,one color, and a few yellow areas, and those, mostly coastal areas,have sufficient numbers of people to Create the Popular vote.
That is what the electoral college is for. To allow the people who are spread thin to be represented.

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